What’s in the secret sauce? What are Lumo predictions based on?

The inputs to Lumo’s prediction models vary by how far from scheduled departure time the prediction is being made.

Further out, the main factors are historical performance for a given airline, seasonality, day of week, and time of day. As it gets closer to flight time, the models begin to consider things like flight paths and air traffic, congestion at various airports and how it impacts other airports (think “butterfly effect”), and weather forecasts. The model simulates air traffic throughout each day, based on all of the inputs, to return the predicted delay probabilities.

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